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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: IBM has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Next confirmed IBM earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-13: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+1.8%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 17.2 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.13 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | -1.4% | 7 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | +0.4% | 25 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.5% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.3% | 19 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-1.1%
Median reaction
-2.8%
Avg |move|
5.1%
Up rate
39%
Avg drift T-20
+2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.2% | +1.8% | 5.2 | -6.3% / +26.2% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.7% | +0.5% | 2.2 | -4.0% / +6.0% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -1.3% | -2.5% | 4.9 | -8.6% / +9.3% | 41% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -1.1% | -2.8% | 5.8 | -9.9% / +13.0% | 39% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.2% | +0.1% | 3.1 | -6.5% / +8.1% | 54% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.7% | +1.3% | 6.2 | -21.3% / +14.5% | 57% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +4.0% | +4.2% | 7.3 | -6.3% / +20.7% | 61% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -6.2% | -7.1% | 7.0 | -24.5% / +8.0% | 22% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 19 | -0.3% | +0.0% | 6.5 | 53% |
| Tuesday | 11 | -0.8% | -4.2% | 6.1 | 36% |
| Monday | 13 | -1.9% | -2.6% | 3.8 | 23% |
| Thursday n<10 | 3 | -3.9% | -4.0% | 5.0 | 33% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | +0.7% | +1.1% | 6.5 | 50% |
| Strong Up | 13 | -1.0% | -3.0% | 5.7 | 31% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | -1.4% | -0.9% | 5.3 | 43% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -1.4% | -4.9% | 6.5 | 40% |
| Mild Up | 13 | -2.1% | -4.2% | 4.9 | 38% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 16 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 5.0 | 44% |
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | -1.5% | -2.6% | 6.4 | 39% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 7 | -2.3% | -4.9% | 4.8 | 29% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 13 | +5.8% | +4.9% | 6.9 | 85% |
| Mild Up | 13 | +1.8% | +1.5% | 2.2 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | +1.0% | +1.2% | 3.2 | 62% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +0.4% | -0.5% | 4.4 | 43% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -2.2% | -1.8% | 2.3 | 20% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 7.1% | -8.2% | -7.8% | 1.17x |
| 2026-01-28 | 7.2% | +5.1% | +8.1% | 0.72x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 exp 2026-04-24 · ATM 250 | -8.2% | 116.0% → 76.0% (-40 pts) | -99.1% | +146.3% | +10.1% | -10.1% | +11.6% | -11.6% |
| 2026-01-28 exp 2026-01-30 · ATM 290 | +5.1% | 116.0% → 61.0% (-55 pts) | +51.6% | -99.0% | -6.4% | +6.4% | -11.5% | +11.5% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 Wednesday | +4.7% | -7.8% | -8.2% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -6.3% | -15.1% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2026-01-28 Wednesday | -3.8% | +8.1% | +5.1% | -6.5% | -21.3% | +8.8% | -24.5% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-10-22 Wednesday | +7.5% | -7.8% | -0.9% | +8.1% | +1.8% | +13.6% | -8.3% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-07-23 Wednesday | -4.0% | -7.4% | -7.6% | -0.1% | -6.3% | -5.8% | -16.7% | 14% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-04-23 Wednesday | -1.8% | -5.8% | -6.6% | +5.5% | +14.5% | +10.4% | -8.6% | 40% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +12% | |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | +2.6% | +9.3% | +13.0% | +1.9% | -1.3% | +16.7% | +8.0% | 13% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2024-10-23 Wednesday | +5.2% | -5.1% | -6.2% | -6.2% | -1.0% | -4.9% | -12.6% | 14% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-07-24 Wednesday | +6.6% | +1.5% | +4.3% | +0.1% | +3.6% | +8.2% | -1.2% | 15% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2024-04-24 Wednesday | -2.3% | -8.6% | -8.2% | -2.6% | +3.9% | -4.0% | -11.7% | 15% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-01-24 Wednesday | +7.3% | +6.3% | +9.5% | -3.6% | -2.4% | +13.2% | +3.7% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | -4.2% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +1.1% | +9.1% | +14.9% | +3.3% | 13% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2023-07-19 Wednesday | -0.3% | +1.3% | +2.1% | +1.9% | +2.8% | +8.2% | +0.8% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2023-04-19 Wednesday | -0.2% | +3.0% | +0.0% | -0.4% | +0.8% | +3.7% | -3.6% | 18% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2023-01-25 Wednesday | -0.6% | -2.3% | -4.5% | +0.5% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -7.3% | 17% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2022-10-19 Wednesday | -1.9% | +3.0% | +4.7% | +5.2% | +14.0% | +20.7% | +2.1% | 28% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2022-07-18 Monday | +1.8% | -4.7% | -5.2% | -1.8% | +4.4% | -0.9% | -9.4% | 20% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2022-04-19 Tuesday | +0.8% | +4.5% | +7.1% | -1.5% | +1.2% | +9.9% | +0.7% | 14% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2022-01-24 Monday | -1.4% | +0.2% | +5.7% | -1.9% | -7.8% | +7.8% | -3.6% | 16% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2021-10-20 Wednesday | +5.4% | -5.9% | -9.6% | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.8% | -12.7% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2021-07-19 Monday | -3.6% | +3.7% | +1.5% | +2.0% | +3.8% | +5.4% | +0.6% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2021-04-19 Monday | +3.3% | +3.0% | +3.8% | +2.5% | +6.2% | +12.7% | +2.7% | 19% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-01-21 Thursday | +6.7% | -8.3% | -9.9% | +1.2% | +1.7% | -5.0% | -10.8% | 16% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2020-10-19 Monday | +4.4% | -4.6% | -6.5% | -4.4% | +2.3% | -3.2% | -15.6% | 27% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +0% | |
| 2020-07-20 Monday | +3.2% | +3.8% | -0.2% | +0.1% | +0.0% | +4.6% | -4.2% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2020-04-20 Monday | 1 | +26.2% | -5.3% | -3.0% | +7.8% | +5.5% | +7.4% | -6.9% | 67% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +2% |
| 2020-01-21 Tuesday | +3.4% | +3.0% | +3.4% | -3.0% | +5.9% | +14.1% | -3.0% | 11% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2019-10-16 Wednesday | -0.1% | -5.0% | -5.5% | +0.1% | +1.4% | -0.9% | -7.9% | 15% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-07-17 Wednesday | +4.9% | -0.4% | +4.6% | +0.3% | -11.2% | +6.9% | -7.4% | 10% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2019-04-16 Tuesday | +3.3% | -5.3% | -4.2% | +0.6% | -2.2% | -2.2% | -8.7% | 12% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-01-22 Tuesday | +8.4% | +7.2% | +8.5% | +1.1% | +5.1% | +15.0% | +6.4% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-10-16 Tuesday | -2.3% | -6.4% | -7.6% | -2.1% | -8.7% | -5.5% | -21.4% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-07-18 Wednesday | +0.4% | +2.3% | +3.3% | -1.8% | -2.5% | +4.2% | -1.5% | 15% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2018-04-17 Tuesday | +2.3% | -5.5% | -7.5% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -5.2% | -13.1% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-01-18 Thursday | +10.3% | -2.8% | -4.0% | +1.9% | -3.0% | -0.2% | -13.8% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2017-10-17 Tuesday | +1.5% | +7.2% | +8.9% | -2.3% | -5.7% | +10.9% | +1.6% | 8% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2017-07-18 Tuesday | -0.5% | -2.6% | -4.2% | -0.9% | -2.7% | -2.4% | -7.8% | 10% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-04-18 Tuesday | -3.2% | -4.9% | -4.9% | -0.8% | -4.0% | -4.4% | -11.1% | 8% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2017-01-19 Thursday | +0.1% | +0.6% | +2.2% | +4.8% | +7.2% | +10.4% | -0.5% | 10% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-10-17 Monday | -0.1% | -3.1% | -2.6% | -0.1% | +5.9% | +5.5% | -4.5% | 12% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2016-07-18 Monday | +5.2% | +1.2% | -0.2% | +1.9% | +2.3% | +4.1% | -1.2% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-04-18 Monday | +3.7% | -4.0% | -5.6% | +3.3% | +4.8% | +0.0% | -6.5% | 15% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2016-01-19 Tuesday | -6.3% | -7.5% | -4.9% | +0.6% | +4.5% | +0.6% | -7.9% | 18% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2015-10-19 Monday | +1.9% | -4.5% | -5.8% | +2.1% | -4.0% | -2.5% | -10.9% | 18% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2015-07-20 Monday | +3.7% | -5.1% | -5.9% | -2.5% | -3.4% | -4.0% | -10.4% | 14% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2015-04-20 Monday | +2.0% | -0.1% | -1.1% | +3.9% | +6.2% | +6.1% | -2.0% | 19% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2015-01-20 Tuesday | -0.5% | -2.5% | -3.1% | +1.0% | +7.4% | +4.2% | -4.7% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_IBM.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.