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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: SMCI habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, August 04, 2026
Next confirmed SMCI earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 4–9 trading days before the report (median 6).
Projected watch window: Jul 22 → Jul 29 · most likely around Mon Jul 27.
Projected watch window: Jul 22 → Jul 29 · most likely around Mon Jul 27.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Tuesday ×2, Wednesday ×1, Thursday ×1, Monday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 42% of the last 12 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-13: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+1.8%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 17.2 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.22 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | +3.4% | 8 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | +1.0% | 21 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.6% | 22 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +3.1% | 24 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
39
Avg reaction
+3.1%
Median reaction
+3.5%
Avg |move|
10.3%
Up rate
62%
Avg drift T-20
+5.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 39 | +5.3% | -0.2% | 19.9 | -31.1% / +70.1% | 49% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 39 | +0.8% | +1.0% | 6.7 | -18.4% / +13.6% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 39 | +2.3% | +3.3% | 8.3 | -17.3% / +20.8% | 62% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 39 | +3.1% | +3.5% | 12.6 | -23.4% / +31.2% | 62% |
| Follow-through +5d | 39 | +0.0% | -1.1% | 9.0 | -23.4% / +29.3% | 36% |
| Follow-through +20d | 39 | +6.7% | +1.8% | 19.5 | -20.5% / +67.2% | 64% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 39 | +22.4% | +17.8% | 30.2 | -14.7% / +132.7% | 85% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 39 | -8.0% | -7.6% | 11.9 | -36.0% / +13.0% | 26% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 11 | +4.3% | +5.2% | 6.8 | 73% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | +3.5% | +3.5% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Tuesday | 24 | +3.1% | +4.5% | 15.3 | 58% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 2 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 1.7 | 50% |
| Friday n<10 | 1 | -1.8% | -1.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | +6.6% | +7.6% | 18.3 | 75% |
| Strong Up | 14 | +5.7% | +7.0% | 9.6 | 79% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +3.4% | +0.5% | 11.8 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +2.6% | -2.5% | 13.4 | 40% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | -3.3% | -1.7% | 11.7 | 38% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +10.6% | +13.0% | 16.1 | 83% |
| Low (<15) | 11 | +2.0% | +0.8% | 6.0 | 73% |
| Medium (15-25) | 22 | +1.6% | -0.1% | 13.2 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +11.8% | +7.1% | 21.9 | 64% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +11.7% | +6.1% | 21.8 | 62% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +0.6% | -5.1% | 12.2 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -3.9% | +0.5% | 17.9 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -7.9% | -10.0% | 5.9 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-29 Tuesday | NEGATIVE | Preliminary Q3 FY25: revenue cut to $4.5-4.6B from $5-6B guidance (delayed customer platform decisions) | 5d | -3.4% | -11.5% | -8.5% |
| 2025-02-11 Tuesday | POSITIVE | Business update: preliminary Q2 FY25 figures + $40B FY26 revenue target; reiterated 10-K filing on track | 9d | -9.5% | +2.8% | +17.9% |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | NEGATIVE | 8-K disclosing Ernst & Young resignation as auditor; Q1 FY25 'business update' followed instead of full results | 4d | -32.7% | -12.0% | -16.2% |
| 2024-01-18 Thursday | POSITIVE | Raised Q2 FY24 revenue guidance to $3.6-3.65B from $2.7-2.9B on AI demand | 7d | -2.1% | +35.9% | +59.1% |
| 2023-04-24 Monday | NEGATIVE | Preliminary Q3 FY23: revenue ~$1.28B vs $1.47-1.63B guidance (component shortages / delayed customer decisions) | 6d | -8.1% | -5.4% | +5.9% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 4–9 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=5) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 15.4% | +24.5% | +13.0% | 1.60x |
| 2026-02-03 | 14.3% | +13.8% | +11.1% | 0.96x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 exp 2026-05-08 · ATM 28 | +24.5% | 204.0% → 170.0% (-34 pts) | +240.1% | -96.7% | +66.7% | -66.7% | +71.6% | -71.6% |
| 2026-02-03 exp 2026-02-06 · ATM 29.5 | +13.8% | 187.0% → 126.0% (-61 pts) | +104.2% | -95.1% | +11.8% | -11.8% | +15.0% | -15.0% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | +22.8% | +13.0% | +24.5% | -5.4% | +36.8% | +84.7% | +5.9% | 64% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | 1 | -1.3% | +11.1% | +13.8% | -1.3% | -3.3% | +17.8% | -1.1% | 53% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +41% |
| 2025-11-04 Tuesday | -13.9% | -5.1% | -11.3% | -7.6% | -19.9% | -2.2% | -34.5% | 72% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2025-08-05 Tuesday | 1 | +16.6% | -17.3% | -18.3% | -0.8% | -14.3% | -14.7% | -30.9% | 54% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -7% |
| 2025-05-06 Tuesday | NEGATIVE 3 | -0.2% | -5.6% | -1.4% | +19.7% | +35.9% | +45.1% | -7.3% | 96% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-02-25 Tuesday | POSITIVE 5 | +56.7% | +20.8% | +12.2% | -23.4% | -20.5% | +23.4% | -24.2% | 128% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -2% |
| 2024-08-06 Tuesday | -31.1% | -13.7% | -20.1% | +15.2% | -14.1% | +3.7% | -36.0% | 55% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -23% | |
| 2024-04-30 Tuesday | 2 | -15.0% | -9.5% | -14.0% | +11.0% | +13.7% | +13.2% | -18.5% | 114% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +19% |
| 2024-01-29 Monday | POSITIVE 1 | +70.1% | +10.4% | +3.5% | +29.3% | +65.9% | +117.5% | +1.1% | 115% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | -10.0% | +3.4% | -2.5% | +5.8% | +11.2% | +21.5% | -9.9% | 62% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-08-08 Tuesday | +28.2% | -14.5% | -23.4% | -0.7% | +3.0% | -14.1% | -32.3% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2023-05-02 Tuesday | NEGATIVE | -7.3% | +11.1% | +28.3% | -1.3% | +67.2% | +132.7% | +9.5% | 64% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -5% |
| 2023-01-31 Tuesday | 1 | -11.9% | -0.5% | +10.2% | +2.8% | +27.9% | +43.8% | -3.1% | 71% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
| 2022-11-01 Tuesday | 1 | +19.2% | +4.4% | +12.5% | -3.1% | +11.6% | +32.5% | +3.2% | 62% | Sideways / High (>25) | +21% |
| 2022-08-09 Tuesday | 1 | +43.0% | +9.6% | +9.5% | +3.8% | -0.7% | +28.8% | +4.5% | 52% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | 1 | +14.6% | +11.8% | +31.2% | -9.9% | -8.8% | +35.0% | +8.1% | 78% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +27% |
| 2022-02-01 Tuesday | -8.6% | +4.4% | +5.1% | -12.1% | -3.7% | +5.5% | -11.3% | 45% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-11-02 Tuesday | -0.6% | +11.7% | +13.0% | +7.1% | +1.3% | +27.2% | +6.2% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +55% | |
| 2021-08-10 Tuesday | +17.1% | +2.4% | +0.7% | -5.8% | -6.4% | +2.8% | -11.1% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-05-04 Tuesday | -7.1% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -5.7% | +0.1% | +1.0% | -8.5% | 19% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-02-02 Tuesday | +2.2% | +2.4% | +4.0% | +2.6% | +1.8% | +9.4% | -3.6% | 29% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +44% | |
| 2020-11-03 Tuesday | -12.4% | +15.8% | +22.3% | -2.1% | +2.7% | +29.2% | +13.0% | 40% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +255% | |
| 2020-08-11 Tuesday | +10.0% | -8.7% | -14.7% | -0.6% | +0.6% | -6.7% | -18.9% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | +6.9% | +5.0% | +13.6% | -8.1% | +12.6% | +33.1% | -0.2% | 31% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +140% | |
| 2020-02-06 Thursday | 1 | +22.5% | -3.0% | -2.5% | +4.1% | -8.3% | +3.6% | -13.3% | 57% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -16% |
| 2019-12-20 Friday | +17.4% | +0.6% | -1.8% | -0.8% | +20.2% | +21.7% | -6.7% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -19% | |
| 2019-12-19 Thursday | +7.3% | +1.3% | +8.8% | -2.2% | +16.0% | +32.5% | +1.1% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -32% | |
| 2019-12-18 Wednesday | +4.8% | -0.1% | +0.8% | +5.1% | +26.6% | +33.5% | -0.4% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -54% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | +12.9% | -2.2% | +0.2% | -2.0% | -1.7% | +3.1% | -7.6% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | -5.3% | +4.9% | +0.4% | -1.0% | +0.4% | +6.0% | -8.2% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2017-01-26 Thursday | -0.5% | +10.3% | -6.5% | -4.5% | +1.1% | +11.2% | -13.0% | 26% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | -4.9% | +6.6% | +10.4% | -8.4% | +10.0% | +21.9% | -0.5% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +71% | |
| 2016-08-04 Thursday | 1 | -16.4% | -2.1% | +5.2% | +0.7% | +3.1% | +9.2% | -5.4% | 118% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +24% |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | 1 | -17.1% | -2.0% | -4.8% | -1.1% | -4.2% | -2.0% | -13.7% | 79% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | 1 | +9.6% | +3.3% | +10.2% | +8.5% | +7.7% | +23.2% | +1.8% | 95% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2015-10-22 Thursday | 1 | -8.3% | +4.3% | +11.9% | -2.0% | -17.7% | +21.0% | -8.4% | 73% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% |
| 2015-08-04 Tuesday | -6.5% | +7.7% | +8.1% | -6.3% | -11.2% | +12.2% | -9.3% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2015-04-21 Tuesday | -5.0% | -3.0% | -8.4% | -7.0% | +3.1% | -2.3% | -18.6% | 42% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -5% | |
| 2015-01-20 Tuesday | +9.5% | +3.9% | -9.6% | +9.4% | +14.7% | +7.2% | -10.1% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +39% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_SMCI.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.