Tour 531
Requests
New Request
View All
Q4 2026 — what actually happened. 155 earnings events from tickers on our active options roster. Average absolute reaction was 4.67%, and 50.3% of reactions were positive. Implied move collapsed by an average of 5.0% from the pricing session to the reaction session. Of the 25 beats on record this quarter, 15 (60%) still closed lower on the reaction session — a beat is not a trade.
Across the 78 events whose front expiry was 3 days or less — the only like-for-like comparison — 14.1% broke outside the expected move, and the average reaction was 0.52x the implied. The median front-expiry DTE for the full quarter is 3 days, so the all-in "outside EM" rate of 12.4% is flattered by straddles covering far more time than a single session; do not read it as a one-day statistic.
Click any row for that ticker's full cycle history. Click a column header to sort. Rows with a complete EPS record sort first by default; EPS coverage is backfilled per ticker and rows without an estimate show — rather than a guess. Read surprise % against the size of the estimate: a penny beat on a one-cent consensus prints as +500% and earns a BIG BEAT chip while meaning almost nothing economically. The percentage is the standard convention and is reported as sourced, but on near-zero EPS bases it exaggerates.
Ticker▾Report▾Est▾Act▾Surprise▾Result▾Gap▾Reaction▾Exp Move▾vs EM▾IV Crush▾Opt Vol▾
ANGO2026-10-08 BMO-0.11-0.04+64.7%BIG BEAT-6.84%-20.86%13.88% 9dOUTSIDE 1.50x+11.0%+36%
RGP2026-10-07 AMC-0.19-0.16+17.9%BIG BEAT-18.18%-20.05%46.26% 9dINSIDE 0.43x-63.9%-23%
BYRN2026-10-08 BMO-0.19-0.08+59.0%BIG BEAT-9.14%+16.79%28.64% 9dINSIDE 0.59x-46.9%-36%
ACN2026-10-01 BMO3.183.29+3.4%BEAT+17.78%+15.78%8.07% 2dOUTSIDE 1.95x-56.2%+174%
PENG2026-10-06 AMC0.771.00+29.5%BIG BEAT+4.86%+13.08%19.55% 10dINSIDE 0.67x-42.9%+35%
APOG2026-10-06 BMO0.641.17+84.2%BIG BEAT+19.85%+12.17%14.72% 11dINSIDE 0.83x-59.6%+143%
PKE2026-10-08 AMC0.160.21+31.2%BIG BEAT-1.72%-11.06%6.34% 8dOUTSIDE 1.74x+3.2%-89%
LW2026-10-06 BMO0.590.75+27.7%BIG BEAT+5.52%+7.49%9.76% 11dINSIDE 0.77x-45.0%-69%
WS2026-10-06 AMC1.160.57-50.9%BIG MISS-5.24%-6.89%15.00% 10dINSIDE 0.46x-49.8%+174%
JNJ2026-10-13 BMO2.522.59+2.7%BEAT-3.48%-5.73%4.13% 4dOUTSIDE 1.39x-28.5%+119%
SAR2026-10-06 AMC0.490.45-8.2%MISS-3.86%-5.69%6.96% 10dINSIDE 0.82x-24.8%-58%
C2026-10-13 BMO2.622.83+7.9%BEAT-0.43%-5.60%4.42% 4dOUTSIDE 1.27x-33.0%+15%
MKC2026-10-01 BMO0.760.86+13.8%BIG BEAT+0.86%-4.87%7.44% 16dINSIDE 0.66x-17.7%+52%
DPZ2026-10-13 BMO4.394.60+4.8%BEAT-7.68%-4.76%7.82% 4dINSIDE 0.61x-35.8%-5%
FBK2026-10-13 BMO1.211.21+0.2%IN-LINE-2.74%-4.21%5.95% 4dINSIDE 0.71x-37.7%-32%
HELE2026-10-08 BMO0.500.79+58.8%BIG BEAT+22.62%+3.91%17.22% 9dINSIDE 0.23x-47.5%+180%
PEP2026-10-08 BMO2.302.34+1.9%IN-LINE+0.47%+3.73%3.80% 2dINSIDE 0.98x-46.9%+19%
NKE2026-10-01 AMC0.440.48+9.9%BEAT-7.40%-3.64%10.10% 1dINSIDE 0.36x-54.1%+30%
TLRY2026-10-08 BMO-0.14-0.02+85.7%BIG BEAT-6.18%-3.49%10.22% 2dINSIDE 0.34x-56.4%-6%
AYI2026-10-01 BMO5.565.77+3.8%BEAT-1.09%-3.40%10.49% 16dINSIDE 0.32x-32.5%-63%
RPM2026-10-06 BMO1.951.98+1.8%IN-LINE+1.00%+3.16%6.72% 11dINSIDE 0.47x-46.2%-1%
WFC2026-10-13 BMO1.861.87+0.8%IN-LINE-3.30%-3.10%5.20% 4dINSIDE 0.60x-34.2%-6%
WS2026-10-07 AMC1.160.57-50.9%BIG MISS-2.56%-2.64%7.54% 9dINSIDE 0.35x-24.1%-96%
LEVI2026-10-07 AMC0.360.48+34.0%BIG BEAT-2.61%-2.36%9.48% 9dINSIDE 0.25x-60.7%-48%
STZ2026-10-06 AMC3.553.74+5.5%BEAT-1.15%+2.35%4.65% 3dINSIDE 0.51x-36.4%-16%
NEOG2026-10-06 AMC0.050.08+50.0%BIG BEAT+5.43%-2.34%13.80% 10dINSIDE 0.17x-31.7%-16%
ACI2026-10-13 BMO0.330.36+9.6%BEAT-1.91%+1.44%9.81% 4dINSIDE 0.15x-41.5%-25%
NG2026-10-08 BMO-0.08-0.11-44.0%BIG MISS-0.47%-1.26%9.91% 9dINSIDE 0.13x-22.8%-9%
TMQ2026-10-02 BMO-0.04-0.09-122.2%BIG MISS+2.94%+0.98%10.78% 15dINSIDE 0.09x+8.0%+54%
JPM2026-10-13 BMO5.945.75-3.2%MISS+1.70%-0.86%3.57% 4dINSIDE 0.24x-23.4%+20%
NRIX2026-10-08 AMC5.114.73-7.5%MISS-0.77%+0.63%12.52% 8dINSIDE 0.05x+9.2%-7%
GS2026-10-13 BMO13.0917.01+30.0%BIG BEAT+3.25%-0.23%4.35% 4dINSIDE 0.05x-31.6%+39%
UNH2026-10-13 BMO4.144.69+13.3%BIG BEAT+5.05%-0.20%7.08% 4dINSIDE 0.03x-50.0%+37%
APLD2026-10-07 AMC-0.30-0.01+96.7%BIG BEAT+2.27%+0.17%11.76% 2dINSIDE 0.01x-55.1%+8%
RELL2026-10-07 AMC0.090.27+200.0%BIG BEAT+0.55%-0.15%15.30% 9dINSIDE 0.01x-47.3%+82%
NRIX2026-10-13 BMO5.114.73-7.5%MISS0.00%-0.14%13.67% 4dINSIDE 0.01x-28.0%+123%
DAL2026-10-09 BMO1.761.72-2.1%MISS-2.99%+0.04%5.00% 1dINSIDE 0.01x-19.2%-68%
UNTY2026-10-13 BMO1.571.70+8.6%BEAT+2.53%+0.04%7.77% 4dINSIDE 0.00x-33.0%-88%
FMC2026-10-15 BMO————-36.71%-30.53%9.64% 2dOUTSIDE 3.17x+149.2%+594%
MXCT2026-10-14 BMO————+27.07%+29.67%79.17% 3dINSIDE 0.37x-54.5%+3133%
INTT2026-10-05 BMO————+6.67%+22.28%11.22% 14dOUTSIDE 1.99x-1.6%+905%
PROF2026-10-07 AMC————+14.44%+21.65%22.54% 9dINSIDE 0.96x-44.1%—
IART2026-10-02 BMO————-17.28%-21.19%9.07% 15dOUTSIDE 2.34x+19.9%—
TORO2026-10-09 BMO————-4.20%-19.53%12.41% 8dOUTSIDE 1.57x+29.2%-100%
CELU2026-10-02 BMO————-0.72%+15.94%20.29% 15dINSIDE 0.79x+32.5%-45%
MAN2026-10-15 BMO1.01———-13.24%-15.82%9.30% 2dOUTSIDE 1.70x+28.4%-22%
SPAI2026-10-07 BMO————+5.37%+14.88%15.37% 10dINSIDE 0.97x-10.2%+736%
CMTL2026-10-14 AMC-0.27———+3.13%+13.28%101.56% 2dINSIDE 0.13x+3.4%-94%
NNVC2026-10-05 BMO————+0.78%+13.28%101.56% 14dINSIDE 0.13x-26.7%-33%
ERIC2026-10-15 BMO0.14———+11.17%+11.80%9.50% 2dOUTSIDE 1.24x-7.2%-83%
LOOP2026-10-15 AMC-0.05———-3.23%-11.29%214.71% 2dINSIDE 0.05x-60.5%-42%
RXRX2026-10-15 BMO————-2.41%+11.23%9.63% 2dOUTSIDE 1.17x+1.8%+144%
HYPR2026-10-08 BMO————+16.61%+10.72%64.71% 9dINSIDE 0.17x-17.8%-9%
CRGY2026-10-15 AMC————+1.52%+10.07%4.12% 2dOUTSIDE 2.44x+213.4%+1409%
ALEC2026-10-05 BMO————+50.55%+9.94%26.52% 14dINSIDE 0.38x-24.2%+1008%
QMCO2026-10-09 AMC————-3.35%-9.60%12.68% 8dINSIDE 0.76x+2.1%+38%
ADCT2026-10-13 BMO————0.00%-8.60%119.89% 4dINSIDE 0.07x+11.9%-95%
ALOY2026-10-15 BMO————-2.59%+8.27%8.10% 2dOUTSIDE 1.02x+210.6%+18%
AVNT2026-10-09 BMO————-7.96%-7.78%3.93% 8dOUTSIDE 1.98x+3.2%+2514%
DAVA2026-10-01 BMO————+3.91%+7.26%58.66% 16dINSIDE 0.12x-37.0%+375%
ITP2026-10-01 BMO————+7.14%+7.14%1735.71% 16dINSIDE 0.00x-5.9%-100%
FNGR2026-10-13 BMO————-0.54%+6.99%252.63% 4dINSIDE 0.03x+70.2%+126%
LNAI2026-10-02 BMO————+4.35%-5.80%————
CBAT2026-10-05 BMO————0.00%-5.76%88.49% 14dINSIDE 0.07x+0.1%+39%
SERV2026-10-05 BMO————+0.33%+5.74%7.14% 7dINSIDE 0.80x+6.2%+304%
BAC2026-10-14 BMO1.11———-7.65%-4.76%4.45% 3dOUTSIDE 1.07x-31.3%+139%
KMB2026-10-15 BMO————+3.48%+4.69%2.73% 2dOUTSIDE 1.72x+37.2%+180%
TSLA2026-10-02 BMO————+1.69%+4.65%2.87% 1dOUTSIDE 1.62x-25.8%+170%
MRSH2026-10-15 BMO1.97———+2.47%+4.56%4.82% 2dINSIDE 0.95x+53.6%-1%
PGR2026-10-14 BMO4.35———-7.14%-4.23%4.35% 3dINSIDE 0.97x-38.0%+98%
COSM2026-10-09 AMC————-2.08%+4.17%41.94% 8dINSIDE 0.10x-11.4%+117%
STT2026-10-14 BMO3.68———-7.01%-4.14%5.97% 3dINSIDE 0.69x-28.3%+20%
TMQ2026-10-06 AMC————-2.36%-4.04%10.10% 10dINSIDE 0.40x+21.6%-34%
FCX2026-10-02 BMO————+0.40%+3.98%2.99% 1dOUTSIDE 1.33x+97.5%+65%
ASML2026-10-14 BMO10.66———-2.38%-3.94%5.69% 3dINSIDE 0.69x-35.1%-9%
WIT2026-10-15 BMO0.04———0.00%+3.89%12.78% 2dINSIDE 0.30x+20.4%-78%
IBKR2026-10-15 AMC0.67———+0.27%-3.88%5.29% 2dINSIDE 0.73x-10.6%+87%
APA2026-10-07 AMC————+3.06%+3.79%3.79% 2dINSIDE 1.00x-26.9%+131%
INDB2026-10-15 AMC1.85———+1.56%+3.63%6.55% 2dINSIDE 0.55x+4.8%+650%
NEO2026-10-05 BMO————+0.05%+3.57%8.28% 14dINSIDE 0.43x-0.3%-52%
FFIN2026-10-16 BMO————+0.28%-3.55%8.74% 2dINSIDE 0.41x+19.4%—
VSTM2026-10-14 BMO————+7.38%+3.49%37.18% 3dINSIDE 0.09x-72.8%+153%
VG2026-10-07 BMO————+0.52%-3.40%7.03% 3dINSIDE 0.48x-11.7%-15%
LADR2026-10-16 BMO————+5.78%+3.29%19.12% 2dINSIDE 0.17x-47.8%+400%
BNY2026-10-15 BMO2.27———+1.58%+3.23%5.40% 2dINSIDE 0.60x+46.7%-79%
EQT2026-10-13 AMC————-0.50%-3.09%3.42% 3dINSIDE 0.90x-18.4%-74%
ENVX2026-10-13 AMC————+2.19%-2.79%8.37% 3dINSIDE 0.33x-31.4%+126%
JBHT2026-10-15 AMC1.81———-3.11%-2.78%8.53% 2dINSIDE 0.33x+26.9%+188%
TORO2026-10-07 BMO————+1.18%+2.76%19.33% 10dINSIDE 0.14x-17.6%+150%
PLUG2026-10-15 BMO————-2.76%+2.76%6.21% 2dINSIDE 0.44x+86.8%-15%
MS2026-10-14 BMO2.94———-3.32%-2.75%4.63% 3dINSIDE 0.59x-34.3%-37%
SCHW2026-10-15 BMO1.66———-3.51%-2.73%4.64% 2dINSIDE 0.59x-25.4%+31%
PLD2026-10-15 BMO0.78———+1.21%-2.70%6.04% 2dINSIDE 0.45x+33.6%-36%
CRGY2026-10-08 AMC————-0.69%-2.69%5.76% 8dINSIDE 0.47x-7.7%-76%
WTTR2026-10-13 AMC————-0.47%-2.69%6.36% 3dINSIDE 0.42x+19.5%+1380%
AEHR2026-10-05 BMO————+0.10%-2.62%11.52% 7dINSIDE 0.23x-12.7%-5%
AIV2026-10-05 BMO————-1.04%-2.59%31.09% 14dINSIDE 0.08x-35.0%—
AA2026-10-15 AMC1.54———+3.04%+2.55%6.76% 2dINSIDE 0.38x-10.1%+147%
AREC2026-10-06 BMO————+1.15%-2.30%18.97% 11dINSIDE 0.12x-16.3%-45%
NBBK2026-10-15 AMC————-2.55%-2.28%5.78% 2dINSIDE 0.39x+9.1%+600%
UP2026-10-09 BMO————+3.34%-2.06%————
HOMB2026-10-14 AMC0.64———-1.91%+2.05%6.82% 2dINSIDE 0.30x+3.4%-99%
USB2026-10-15 BMO1.32———-0.21%+2.01%4.30% 2dINSIDE 0.47x-16.9%-30%
VFS2026-10-01 BMO————+2.56%-1.92%12.82% 16dINSIDE 0.15x-21.0%-26%
IBN2026-10-16 BMO0.38———+1.12%+1.87%4.70% 2dINSIDE 0.40x+102.7%+373%
SM2026-10-14 AMC————+0.50%-1.83%3.45% 2dINSIDE 0.53x+288.5%+317%
BMRN2026-10-06 AMC————-0.30%-1.81%9.20% 10dINSIDE 0.20x+1.4%-15%
TSM2026-10-15 BMO4.48———-3.45%-1.80%3.73% 2dINSIDE 0.48x+8.6%-15%
REGN2026-10-06 BMO————+1.12%+1.69%3.08% 4dINSIDE 0.55x-16.2%-41%
RICK2026-10-08 BMO————+0.08%+1.64%10.13% 9dINSIDE 0.16x-0.1%+69%
MTB2026-10-16 BMO4.92———+1.30%-1.54%6.48% 2dINSIDE 0.24x+31.5%+513%
GBDC2026-10-06 BMO————+0.24%-1.53%4.12% 11dINSIDE 0.37x+21.5%—
TRV2026-10-16 BMO7.30———-3.62%+1.47%4.74% 2dINSIDE 0.31x+52.3%+244%
HUBS2026-10-06 AMC————-0.22%+1.46%10.66% 10dINSIDE 0.14x+2.2%-21%
GRFS2026-10-05 BMO————0.00%+1.37%11.76% 14dINSIDE 0.12x-1.4%-52%
OBDC2026-10-01 AMC————+0.48%-1.34%5.56% 15dINSIDE 0.24x-21.4%-36%
MAIN2026-10-08 AMC————-0.48%-1.34%2.52% 8dINSIDE 0.53x-11.1%+14%
HDB2026-10-16 BMO0.39———+0.76%+1.32%2.34% 2dINSIDE 0.56x+295.8%-16%
CRC2026-10-13 BMO————+0.36%+1.31%6.60% 4dINSIDE 0.20x+7.7%-100%
CSWC2026-10-15 BMO————+0.27%+1.26%4.48% 2dINSIDE 0.28x+33.4%+3882%
HUBG2026-10-01 AMC————+1.19%-1.26%8.79% 15dINSIDE 0.14x-26.2%-98%
ABBV2026-10-05 BMO————-0.59%+1.12%3.05% 7dINSIDE 0.37x-3.2%+1%
FAST2026-10-14 BMO0.34———-7.62%+1.11%8.22% 3dINSIDE 0.13x-25.2%+50%
TFC2026-10-16 BMO1.05———+1.52%+1.07%3.51% 2dINSIDE 0.31x+84.5%+55%
MCBS2026-10-16 BMO————+0.26%+1.04%13.63% 2dINSIDE 0.08x-37.8%+250%
WAFD2026-10-15 AMC0.84———0.00%-1.02%14.63% 2dINSIDE 0.07x+14.9%—
RRC2026-10-14 AMC————-0.29%-1.00%3.70% 2dINSIDE 0.27x+184.2%+1124%
CNS2026-10-15 AMC0.92———+2.17%+0.94%6.40% 2dINSIDE 0.15x+29.4%+21%
EPAC2026-10-14 AMC0.52———+0.49%+0.89%14.10% 2dINSIDE 0.06x-34.9%—
MSB2026-10-15 AMC————-1.44%-0.89%8.58% 2dINSIDE 0.10x+84.4%0%
SFNC2026-10-15 AMC0.53———0.00%-0.85%5.03% 2dINSIDE 0.17x+287.0%+6000%
FHN2026-10-15 BMO0.52———-1.46%+0.84%6.66% 2dINSIDE 0.13x+41.1%-54%
MAIN2026-10-15 AMC————+0.18%-0.81%2.49% 2dINSIDE 0.33x+126.4%+63%
BLK2026-10-14 BMO14.29———+2.11%+0.72%4.87% 3dINSIDE 0.15x-45.7%+27%
AZZ2026-10-13 AMC1.84———-0.59%+0.69%7.72% 3dINSIDE 0.09x-31.5%-49%
EMR2026-10-13 BMO————-0.18%+0.64%4.13% 4dINSIDE 0.15x-20.3%-64%
DE2026-10-01 BMO————-1.06%-0.64%2.00% 2dINSIDE 0.32x-15.9%+155%
WABC2026-10-15 AMC1.17———+0.87%+0.62%8.40% 2dINSIDE 0.07x-30.1%+567%
KINS2026-10-16 BMO————-0.11%+0.59%6.67% 2dINSIDE 0.09x+107.0%+593%
RF2026-10-16 BMO0.66———+2.12%+0.51%5.58% 2dINSIDE 0.09x+42.4%+1825%
NMTC2026-10-05 BMO————+5.36%-0.45%127.68% 14dINSIDE 0.00x+12.6%—
PNC2026-10-15 BMO4.89———-3.39%-0.40%3.85% 2dINSIDE 0.10x-6.3%-34%
ORC2026-10-14 BMO————-1.19%+0.40%3.16% 3dINSIDE 0.12x-6.6%-93%
NOG2026-10-13 AMC————+0.53%-0.34%5.68% 3dINSIDE 0.06x-11.0%-61%
TNXP2026-10-15 BMO————+1.56%+0.31%55.47% 2dINSIDE 0.01x+11.9%-30%
LCID2026-10-05 AMC————+0.24%-0.24%6.95% 4dINSIDE 0.03x-17.0%+27%
EQBK2026-10-14 AMC1.30———+1.50%+0.24%5.22% 2dINSIDE 0.05x+62.6%-92%
EGY2026-10-07 BMO————+1.21%+0.17%7.44% 10dINSIDE 0.02x-16.4%-36%
CMC2026-10-15 BMO1.96———+6.26%+0.12%7.63% 2dINSIDE 0.02x+43.2%-77%
CFG2026-10-16 BMO1.39———+1.69%-0.11%6.68% 2dINSIDE 0.02x+25.2%+17%
CWBC2026-10-15 AMC————+0.16%-0.08%7.55% 2dINSIDE 0.01x+45.5%—
HP2026-10-07 BMO————+0.73%+0.08%6.31% 10dINSIDE 0.01x+10.7%-13%
ATLO2026-10-16 BMO0.68———-0.03%+0.06%8.23% 2dINSIDE 0.01x+32.3%—
ELME2026-10-06 BMO————0.00%0.00%26.29% 11dINSIDE 0.00x0.0%+657%
MGY2026-10-01 AMC————-1.25%0.00%6.73% 15dINSIDE 0.00x-7.4%-60%
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.